What Will be the Cubs Starting Pitching Rotation?

Spring Training is well underway at this point, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t still a few questions to ask about the Chicago Cubs. There are still some questions as to who will play first base, who will play third base, who will be the closer, and who will be that fifth starting pitcher? In this article, I’m going to take a deeper dive into the Cubs starting pitching rotation, as well as who I think will be the fifth starter for the Cubbies come opening day. Here is the starting rotation so far:

1.       Justin Steele:

The Cubs announced on March 9 that Justin Steele was going to be taking the bump on Opening Day in Arlington, and he earned this one. Steele deserves to be the number one starter in that Cubs rotation. He proved last season that he was an ace. He finished the year 16-5 with a 3.06 ERA. A big point of his development last season was limiting the walks. He walked only 36 batters in 173.1 innings pitched last season, compared to the 50 he had in 111 innings pitched in 2022. He also made his first ever All-Star appearance and was one of the top names mentioned for the Cy Young award. I think he will continue to grow and hopefully end up making it to that 20-win mark this year.

2.       Kyle Hendricks:

I think the Cubs are going to put Hendricks in the number 2 role this year. The last remaining player from the Cubs 2016 World Series roster had a good year last year that started in May due to recovering from a shoulder injury.  He pitched in 24 games, posting a 6-8 record and a 3.74 ERA. The thing that I loved about last year was how many fewer home runs he gave up in comparison to his 2022 season. He only gave up 13 home runs last year, two less than the year before despite facing over 200 more batters in 2023. The Professor is Mr. Consistent. With his injury woes hopefully behind him, he will hopefully be his normal self again this season. I don’t foresee him doing what he did in 2016, but he will be back to being consistent.

3.       Shota Imanaga:

I debated whether to put Shota as the number 2 or 3 starting pitcher for the Cubies this year. Ultimately, I went with number 3. I don’t think we should put too much pressure on him to be an ace in his first year in the Bigs. He’s coming over from Japan where he had a lot of success. He went 7-4 with a 2.80 ERA in the Japanese League last year, which is good for any league. However, we don’t always see success immediately translate to the MLB when coming from Japan. He was awesome in the World Baseball Classic, striking out Paul Goldschmidt in one appearance. I also think that it would be better to have the right-handed Hendricks in between the two lefties, Steele and Imanaga. It just doesn’t allow your opponent to get too comfortable. Plus, those are three extremely different looks from three extremely different pitchers three days in a row. That would certainly make it difficult on the opposition.

4.       Jameson Taillon:

Jameson Taillon struggled in his first year as a Cub but put together some really encouraging performances towards the end of the year. He’ll certainly be looking to build on those as time goes on this year. One unfortunate thing about Taillon this year is that he is already dealing with a back injury. Last season, he had an 8-10 record with a 4.84 ERA. Nothing to write home about. However, he’s really shown he can be a very good back of the rotation kind of pitcher throughout his career. He posted two sub-4 ERA seasons with the Pirates when he first came into the league, and then posted one sub-4 ERA season with the Yankees before signing with the Cubs. He appears to have up seasons about 50% of the time, and down seasons about 50% of the time. If last season was any indication, he’s due for an up season this year.

5.       Fifth Starter Options:

a.       Jordan Wicks:

Wicks appears to be the most likely name on the list to be the fifth starter. He’s had a decent spring thus far, with some ups and some downs. I like Wicks, he provided some great performances last year. He went 4-3 in 7 games, posting a 4.41 ERA. Like any young player trying to break into the League, Wicks’ problem is consistency. He had some incredible games last year, but also some stinkers. If he can start to have more good games than bad games, he will be a great candidate for the Cubs’ fifth starter.

b.      Javier Assad:

Assad was awesome last year. He pitched really all over the place, in all kinds of situations. He started games, ate up innings in blowouts, ate up innings in close games to help the bullpen, and pitched in some high leverage moments. All this came off of some awesome performances in the WBC. He pitched in 32 games last season, starting 10 of them and going 5-3 with a 3.05 ERA last year. He’s struggled thus far in Spring Training, but we all know Spring Training isn’t an indicator of how well a player will do during the season. Assad could easily be the fifth starter on this team, and I wouldn’t be mad about it either.

c.       Hayden Wesneski

This guy is my favorite guy to watch and also the most frustrating guy to watch. He stuff is just incredible. He has a wicked slider that is near impossible to hit when located correctly. When Wesneski burst onto the scene in 2022, I thought the Cubs had found an elite talent. He went 3-2 with a 2.18 ERA in 6 games that year. Incredible numbers! However, those fell off horribly last year. He went 3-5 with a 4.63 ERA last year. He started the year as the fifth starter after an incredible Spring Training but fell off hard in the regular season. He was sent down to Iowa for a little and then brought back up to appear out of the bullpen. Homers have been his kryptonite, and if this Spring has been any indication, those woes have continued. I believe that he has the highest potential out of any of these fifth starter options. If he can put it all together, he can not only be successful at the Big Leage level, but also be an elite pitcher. We’ll see what the future holds for him, but I’ve never rooted for a pitching prospect to succeed more.

d.      Other Options:

There are a few other options on the Cubs roster and free agents that I’ll mention briefly. Drew Smyly could make his way back into being a starter but has struggled out of that role for a while. I like him more as a bullpen guy. Black Snell and Jordan Montgomery are still free agents. The Cubs won’t sign Snell, but the Montgomery signing would be interesting. He would make for a great middle-of-the-rotation guy, but I just don’t see the Cubs spending anymore money this Spring. Jed doesn’t love to spend all that much and he just signed Bellinger. I have a feeling this will be it for the Cubs fifth-starter options.

Final Takeaway:

The Cubs have potential to have the best rotation in the NL Central. Burnes is gone from Milwaukee and the Cardinals’ pitchers are all 80 years old. You also just never know what you’re going to get from the Reds and the Pirates. I expect Steele to be dominant again this year, Hendricks to be consistent, Imanaga to start slow but put it all together, and Taillon to be much better than last season. I don’t know what the future holds for that fifth-starter role. I personally think that Wicks will get the nod because of how good he’s been in the Spring. I like all our options at 5 though, so anyone Counsell picks I will be happy with.